The three jobs
Think of base layers, insulation and weather protection as overlapping roles, not an inflexible formula. Choose for the outing and adjust as effort and temperature change.
Moisture movement depends on fabrics, ventilation and temperature and humidity differences. A damp base layer alone does not establish that a shell has failed.
Overdressing: the self-inflicted leak
Extra insulation can increase sweating on a climb. If moisture accumulates faster than the system allows it to escape, condensation may form; this is one possibility rather than proof of a membrane problem.
Start with insulation appropriate to the actual cold and exposure, and adjust before overheating where safe. Do not deliberately underdress in severe conditions; venting and pacing can help but cannot guarantee prevention of condensation.
Fit and practical details
Size the shell for the system, not for your torso alone. A shell that fits perfectly over a t-shirt strangles a fleece: compressed insulation loses its loft and its warmth, and tight layers restrict the air movement that carries moisture outwards. When trying a shell, wear the mid layer you actually use.
Check cuffs with gloves, hem coverage when reaching and hood fit with your hat. Some of these features are documented on product pages, but trying the garment remains useful.